Israel’s record turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999, came with exit polls showing Netanyahu’s bloc falling from 68 seats to 50. Neither Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot appeared to have a clear path to victory. The vote took place while the US-Israel war with Iran sits in an uneasy pause. The White House reportedly said it won’t attack Iran before the US midterms, while CNN reported that US forces could begin major operations within 96 hours of an order. Brent crude closed at $113.88 and WTI at $99.90 as stocks edged higher. The Fed’s decision is due Wednesday, with a hold about 90% priced in and roughly 73% odds of a December hike. For tomorrow, my assessment is that three things will drive global markets and politics. These are the Fed’s tone on inflation, how Israel’s seat counts translate into a possible coalition, and whether Iran diplomacy or strike signals move oil out of its current range.
Global Government
- Middle East: Israelis voted for all 120 seats of the 26th Knesset. A final verdict may take days. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, the signatories of the Mecca Joint Defense Pact, met Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss a new US-Iran ceasefire.
- Americas: US midterms are set for November 3. A Marist poll found 40% of likely voters approve of Trump and 59% disapprove. The New York Times puts his approval at 36%.
- Europe: Europe’s five biggest defense powers vowed to back Ukraine, even as the US offers Moscow a financial lifeline and presses Kyiv for a deal.
- Asia-Pacific: China’s Communist Party opened its fifth plenum, with Xi presenting a report on party discipline. Xi’s condolence message on the death of former Japanese PM Fukuda was read as a rebuke of current PM Takaichi, with China-Japan ties strained for a year.
- Africa: I found no single dominant government story today. Sudan’s war, covered below, dominates the region.
Global Economy
- US: All three major averages finished higher, with the Dow at 52,377.57. The 2-year Treasury yield was about 4.725%.
- Fed and inflation: Policymakers began a two-day meeting on whether hotter-than-expected inflation warrants a rate hike.
- Asia: The Nikkei rose 1.8% and the Kospi 2.9%, after both fell on Monday.
- Europe: European stocks started Tuesday’s session lower.
- Other markets: Gold was around $4,003 and Bitcoin about $79,750.
- Consumers: US regular gasoline averaged $4.29 against $3.06 a year ago, and diesel hit $6.35.
Global Birth Rate
- World: The crude birth rate is about 15.96 per 1,000, with roughly 132.5 million births in 2026. That works out to about 363,000 per day.
- Regions (births per 1,000): Africa 30.0, Oceania 14.7, Latin America and the Caribbean 13.6, Asia 13.3, Northern America 10.4, Europe 8.3.
- Fertility: The global rate is about 2.23 children per woman, ranging from 3.89 in Africa to 1.41 in Europe.
Global Death Rate
- World: The crude death rate is about 7.67 per 1,000, with roughly 63.6 million deaths in 2026.
- Regions (deaths per 1,000): Europe 11.4, Northern America 8.9, Africa 7.5, Asia 7.2, Oceania 6.9, Latin America and the Caribbean 6.8.
- Life expectancy: World 73.8 years, Northern America 80.1, Europe 79.6, Africa 64.4.
Global Population Growth Rate
- World: The population is about 8.30 billion, growing roughly 0.83% in 2026. Some trackers show higher figures, such as 1.15%.
- Regions (net growth per 1,000, including migration): Africa 22.2, Oceania 10.7, Latin America and the Caribbean 6.2, Asia 5.8, Northern America 5.2, and Europe -1.4 (shrinking).
Global Population Sex Ratio
- World: About 101.03 males per 100 females, and 105.3 boys per 100 girls at birth.
- Why males lead: China and India skew male, and excluding them the rest of the world has more females than males.
- Age pattern: Men are only about 80 per 100 women among those over 65.
Global School Life Expectancy (Primary to Tertiary)
- Definition: UNESCO’s “school life expectancy” is the same concept as expected years of schooling.
- World: A CIA Factbook compilation puts the world average at about 12 years. An older UNDP report gave 12.3. I found no fresh 2026 global figure.
- Regional gaps (UNDP 2025 country data): Australia 20.7 years, Finland 19.5, UK 17.8, Germany 17.3, Canada 15.9, UAE 15.6, South Africa 13.8. An older UNESCO analysis put Africa at about 7.8 years.
- Quality gap: Sub-Saharan Africa averages 39 primary pupils per teacher, against 16 to 18 in OECD countries and East Asia.
Global Unemployment Rate
- World: The ILO projects 4.9% in 2026, about 186 million people. The broader jobs gap is forecast at 408 million.
- Youth: Youth unemployment was 12.4% in 2025, with about 260 million young people not in education, employment or training.
- Informality: About 2.1 billion workers are expected to be in informal employment.
- Regions: The Arab States stood at 9.5% in 2025. China’s urban youth unemployment reached 17.8% in mid-2025. Employment growth is projected at 0.5% in upper-middle-income countries, 1.8% in lower-middle-income and 3.1% in low-income ones.
Global Energy
- Oil: Brent stayed near six-month highs, with attacks on Saudi Arabia keeping supply worries alive even as diplomacy hopes pushed prices lower.
- Flows: Kpler data showed Middle East exports above the pre-war level in the week ending October 18, though shipping costs stayed high.
- US fuel policy: Trump has permitted Russian fuel imports and announced $8 billion in farm aid, though analysts say the steps are too late to lower prices before the midterms.
- Ukraine: UN investigators said Russia’s systematic bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amounts to a crime against humanity.
Global Communications
- Iran: NetBlocks called Iran’s wartime blackout the longest nationwide shutdown on record as of April. Iran declared Starlink a “legitimate target”.
- Undersea cables: Iranian threats to target Gulf undersea cables drew mockery from Iranians who said they could deepen Iran’s own isolation.
- Asia: Manila said it has no Taiwan cooperation on protecting undersea cables. Taiwan is enforcing “red-free” supply chains that remove Chinese-made software and components from critical technology.
Global Transportation
- Hormuz: A tanker was disabled in the Strait of Hormuz and another vessel reported on fire on October 26, and October recorded the most ship attacks there.
- Traffic: A US-facilitated corridor averaged 33.7 vessels a day, about 76% below pre-war levels, with at least 54 laden tankers immobilized. Another source reported only four tanker transits a day on October 18 and an IRGC closure declaration on October 26. Tracker numbers conflict.
- Aviation: Flights by Iranian airlines to and from the UAE remain suspended.
Global Military and Security
- Iran: The war is at day 242, with no US or Israeli strike on Iranian territory located for October 26 to 27. Trump called the April ceasefire a waste of time, and Iran set seven conditions for talks. Netanyahu has pushed for a joint strike, but Washington asked Israel to wait. US officials said intelligence shows Iran planning attacks on US citizens, and some Middle East embassies are cutting staff.
- Gaza and Lebanon: The IDF said recent strikes killed Hamas commanders, and Hezbollah is reportedly preparing for renewed war with Iranian funds. Israeli forces shelled two southern Lebanese towns on October 27. The reported Gaza war toll passed 75,000 as of late September.
- Ukraine: A local ceasefire in occupied Oleshky began at 03:00 on October 27 for a humanitarian operation. Zelensky said Kyiv has waited almost a month for a US sign-off on missile supplies. US, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are expected to meet in Abu Dhabi next month.
- Asia: Hegseth is set to visit the Philippines for Asean events.
Global Terrorism
- Rankings: The Global Terrorism Index 2026 ranks Pakistan first, then Burkina Faso and Nigeria.
- Sahel: A suspected Islamic State Sahel Province attack in Mali on October 18 killed at least forty civilians.
- Pakistan: The Kohat attack was the deadliest on a police complex in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since 2023.
- Middle East: Jordan struck armed groups in Syria it linked to a church attack, while Damascus said civilians were killed. Netanyahu warned of attacks aimed at disrupting the election.
Global Transnational Issues and Conflicts
- Sudan: As of May, 24.6 million people faced acute food insecurity, with famine confirmed in el-Fasher and Kadugli.
- Humanitarian access: Pope Leo XIV asked Putin to agree to the Oleshky ceasefire.
- Energy and trade shock: The Hormuz disruption is raising fuel costs worldwide. In the US, voters rank Iran, tariffs, gas prices and AI regulation among top midterm concerns.
What Will Matter Tomorrow (October 28)
These are my forecasts, not reported facts.
- Fed: A hold is the base case. The risk is a hawkish message that raises December hike odds.
- Israel: Final seat counts may differ from exit polls, so expect coalition maneuvering rather than a quick winner.
- Oil: Brent will likely stay roughly between $100 and $115, jumping on strike news and falling on talks.
- Earnings and China: Big US tech earnings land Tuesday and Wednesday. China’s plenum runs through October 29.
- US gasoline: Analysts say it is unlikely to fall below $4 before Election Day.
